Mapping Peace, Protests, and Violence in Kenya
You may have heard that on Wednesday, August 4, a historic event will be taking place: a referendum deciding the acceptance or rejection of a new constitution for Kenya.
The Green side (aka ‘Yes camp’) is headed by President Mwai Kibaki and supported by Kenya prime minister Raila Odinga and much of the parliament. The Red side (aka ‘No camp’) is led by higher education minister William Ruto and has significant support from the church. The proposed constitution limits the sweeping powers of Kenya’s presidency, creating a second chamber of government and giving greater power to local leaders. Contentious issues include the creation of a land commission, retention of Kadhi (Islamic) courts, and a clause which allows abortions if a pregnancy endangers the life or health of the mother. Opinion polls indicate that most people support the proposed constitution.
The number one fear surrounding the vote is a renewal of ethnic tensions and violence in Kenya. In fact, there has been limited violence surrounding the upcoming referendum. The flashpoints are in areas where neighboring ethnic groups have different voting preferences. Among identified hotspots, the northern Rift Valley is considered most likely for violence as the area has many Kikuyu supporting the Yes camp and Kalenjin supporting the No camp. Like many other conflicts that have come before, the real issue at stake is land. Some feel that the Kikuyu, Kenya’s most populous ethnic group, were unfairly allocated land in the Rift Valley at independence. Kalenjin and Kikuyu members who clashed fiercely in the last election could be set off again by the land measures incorporated into this year’s referendum.
